As our biannual electoral cycle once again calls us to the polls, so too am I called to my word processor to deliver another wall of text speculating on the Parliament to come. Please upvote me as I mourn the loss of every article I wrote on this topic for BNOC news.

How we got here

The story of this Parliament very much is tied to the previous two. Three terms ago Solidarity was catapulted to second place in the election, and managed to form a minority coalition, the first "Rose" government. This coalition relied on the Progressive Workers and informally called for the backing of the Lib Dems to get business done, but it none the less managed to make it to the end of the term, and was gifted a majority as the Libertarian Party melted away into the dust.

After a term of majoritarian government Labour merged with the PWP and gained six seats, but Solidarity lost nine, leaving them at 74 seats with Model-Avery in the kingmaker position. They chose a right leaning coalition, which later collapsed due to a loss of confidence, leading to the formation of the Broad Center government we have today.

Labour’s Election to Lose

With the merger of Labour and Coalition!, Broad Center has become an almost permanent state of affairs. The sight of two parties that were unable to agree a coalition deal at the beginning of the term now voting to merge is a stark reminder of how quickly the political sands can shift under our feet.

In this election, success for Labour is far more about leverage than seat counts. Labour needs Broad Center to continue to be able to command a majority. This will give them flexibility and negotiating power. If they have the luxury of choice between a Centrist and Rose Government, they will be able to secure greater concessions in talks and most crucially will have options if they cannot break bread with Solidarity after a term apart. Ray will also desperately hope to be able to narrowly nudge Labour ahead of Solidarity so that when talks come, he will have a strong claim to Number 10 in all circumstances.

Realistically, Labour will inevitably lose seats in this election. In the last election Labour and Coalition! were top of the line parties and it is simply not realistic to merge them and expect to retain those kinds of seat counts in our electoral system. They will dominate in first past the post races, but the list will render that irrelevant.

Labour’s win condition sees a choice between a majority Rose and Broad Center coalition, with Labour having enough seats to stake a claim to Downing Street. Their lose condition sees Broad Center rendered impossible, and their seat count shrinking below Solidarity to place them in a very weak negotiating position.

Solidarity’s Chance

Solidarity may appear to be in a strong position, but this term has been a disaster for them. Not once but twice Solidarity has been unable to galvanise their former allies in Labour to their cause. With period of opposition relations are now to be expected to be even worse, and an electoral fight is unlikely to improve them.

Solidarity’s hopes rested on the failure of the Broad Center coalition. This crucially has not occurred, and this may explain part of the fury unleashed at Labour’s merger. Solidarity’s goal therefore must be to deny the Broad Center coalition it’s majority, to push Labour back as hard as they can to ensure that they are integral to Labour’s chances of retaining government. This crucially does not require Solidarity to be the larger party, simply to be large enough to force Labour to pick between Solidarity or the Conservatives for a majority.

One interesting alternative would be if Solidarity with the Lib Dems and SLP could command a majority. Solidarity’s fundamental weakness is their dependency on Labour, and if an electoral landscape were to form which gave them a way out, they’d be wise to grasp onto it as an option to consider.

The Conservative Consolidation

Surprisingly, if any party can be said to have done well out of the collapse of the Coinflip Government, it has to be the Conservatives. Despite being the architects of their own demise they have found strength in opposition, and have been steadily gaining in the polls.

But the Conservatives have even more to fear from the Labour-Coalition! merger than Solidarity, because they simply lack a route to Government. The Coinflip Coalition barely managed it’s 76 seats, and with Coalition! gone it is hard to see how they can hope to return to Government in the near future.

Their win condition is near unthinkable, but here it is. The Conservatives have a good election, perhaps taking a seat count in the high twenties. Labour and the Lib Dems also do well, but not well enough to allow for another broad-center government. Talks between Labour and Solidarity for a Rose Government end in disaster, and the unthinkable happens, talks for a Labour-Conservative government begin.

This would almost certainly require a change of leadership, as most of those who were in Coinflip wouldn’t trust EruditeFellow with a fork, let alone the Deputy Prime Minister job once again. However with EruditeFellow being increasingly absent, perhaps a bowing out is inevitable. If they get the regicide done fast and begin talks early, the unthinkable might just happen.

The Liberal Perspective

While in this election there will be two Liberal parties, their fates are quite entwined. Both serve in Government together, both are small enough to countenance a fairly substantive electoral pact which would see them functionally run as one party, and both should very much angle themselves on the assumption that their success is mutual, as their interests are highly aligned.

The Liberal Democrats will certainly lose seats as a slow attrition of senior members has left them in a difficult situation, but the Social Liberals will certainly gain from their current meager three seats. If the Social Liberal gains outpace the Liberal Democrat loses, then it will have been a good result for Liberal politics.

The success of these two Liberal parties will be crucial for the big players. If they can form a majority with Labour, then Labour’s hand is massively strengthened. If they cannot however, this will play into the hands of Solidarity and perhaps the Tories. While they will be junior partners in any coalition, they will be crucial.

Both have the same win condition. They must hope to be the kingmaker in a Broad Center deal, as this will give them a strong leverage position over Labour with which to extract concessions. Either could choose to throw themselves into Rose talks, however they will not be needed for that coalition to succeed, and will therefore be reliant on goodwill over hard political power.

Conversely their worst case scenario sees a Solidarity-Labour deal that freezes them out. Such a Government would have an enormous majority, and would consign both parties to irrelevance on the opposition benches.

The Independents

In this election there are three independent forces of note to be expected. The first are the Freedom and Liberty Party. They will hope to finally secure a second seat with a recent growth of members, and will then pray for a situation not unlike coinflip where they could provide a Labour lead centrist coalition with a crucial handful of seats with which to secure a majority (or at least to edge out any rivals).

The second force to consider is the Pirate party. They are unlikely to secure more than one seat, and can be expected to very much enter the orbit of Solidarity. If Solidarity is in government, there is a good chance that any Pirate MPs will follow them. Consequentially their win condition is largely the same as Solidarity’s.

Finally, there is the independent politician Mariogog. Increasingly commonly independent politicians appear in polling by name, the public find themselves increasingly captivated by unique and outspoken independents and eager to back them. Mariogog securing a seat in this election will give him a great degree of agency, and he could realistically join either a Rose or Centrist coalition should he wish to do so.

In Summary

The takeaway here is that this election will have one crucial question, can the Broad Center government hold the line? This question is foundational to the interests of every party, with prospective partners having wildly different interests in this matter. The real test of political fortunes will not be if Solidarity or Labour have more seats, but rather who is best placed to leverage the other, and parties around them.