There has been a lot of talk recently about war. With the disastrous end of the decade-long conflict in Afghanistan and the upcoming 40th anniversary of the Falklands War, it has been a time of reflection on conflicts past. However, war never seems to be far away nowadays. Every year seemingly on repeat, there is another threat of World War III breaking out. In 2020, it was the assassination by the US of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani that would lead to World War III between America and Iran, in 2021, it was Chinese incursions in Taiwanese waters that would lead to World War III between America and China, and now in 2022, it’s Russian troops amassing on the Ukrainian border that will lead to World War III between NATO and Russia.

The current situation seems the most dangerous out of the three mentioned above. Not only is it the US, but all of NATO and its allies. That includes the US, Canada and almost every European nation (yes, even Switzerland), as well as Australia, New Zealand, Colombia, Japan and South Korea. The enemy would be Russia and potentially most of the former USSR and possibly also China, who would be looking to make more gains in the South China Sea, as well as looking to retake Taiwan as they threatened to last year. And if China is getting involved, that may trigger an evermore desperate North Korean government to get involved, potentially re-ignited the Korean War.

As you see just from that summary, this is a precarious situation. Russian incursions into the Ukraine threaten to break out in a land war unseen since the last World War and potential Chinese involvement could see a naval and aerial war in the South China Sea and with nuclear weapons not off the table, this could end very badly.

In some ways, this feels like the days before the Great War in 1914. Two military alliances at each other’s throats, waiting for one to blink first. I hope I'm wrong of course but things could not be more delicately poised.

The thing is, this has been coming. The West has let Putin do his own thing for over 2 decades now, whilst he has been rebuilding Russia's economy and military. The Invasion of Crimea was just a test, to see whether the West would blink and we didn't. We had a brief period of outrage and then just let it happen. This parallels, for me, all too closely with the years preceding World War II. This cowardly appeasement of Russia and Putin only bolsters him and makes him stronger both at home and on the international stage. I get that after decades of Cold War and animosity between the west and Moscow, we would want better relations with Russia, but appeasing a dictator is not the way. Russia deserves better than another strongman.

Crimea was the Anschluss, the full-on invasion of Ukraine could be our Poland - the spark that lights the fire that burns everything down.

History is repeating itself. If we fail to learn from the events preceding the deadliest wars in human history, we are doomed to do it again.

I am not the one to look to for solutions. War with Russia is too far and appeasement isn't enough.

Where do we go now?