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National Opinion Polling - 18th June
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Question: If the General Election were held today, who would you vote for?
polls conducted between the 16th May and 29th May
Party | 9th - 15th May | 16th May - 22nd May | 23rd May - 29th May | Change between 9th and 29th May |
---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative Party | 36.86% | 36.48% | 35.89% | -0.97% |
Labour Party | 15.92% | 16.18% | 16.21% | 0.29% |
Libertarian Party UK | 11.22% | 12.22% | 12.34% | 1.12% |
Liberal Democrats | 10.12% | 10.96% | 12.19% | 2.07% |
Classical Liberals | 10.35% | 11.41% | 11.60% | 1.25% |
Green Left | 5.88% | 5.17% | 5.15% | -0.73% |
Loyalist League | 2.26% | 2.11% | 2.16% | -0.10% |
Plaid Cymru | 2.07% | 1.87% | 1.66% | -0.41% |
Other/Do not know | 5.32% | 3.60% | 2.80% | -2.52% |
Notes on polling:
- We are using the new method (same as the last poll) of generating the margin of error - Gaussian random numbers using this generator - the margin of error is generated using a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 1 (the results are around the same as before - slightly smaller than the old 3% range)
- This polling is for the date range specified, that means that some recent events will not have been included in this, they will be included in the next set of polls
- Any complaints about the polls are probably due to the above two points, so please don't launch us with questions like "why has x party not fallen/risen?" or "but x party did this last week, why haven't we done really well?" because I will just point you to this thread
- Other/do not know covers both actual 'other' parties (like New Britain and Climate Rebellion) as well as leftover percentage from calculating margin of error. Therefore, a high 'other' score signals that some/more parties are actually polling higher than what the polling suggests, and vice versa with a small number. However, that doesn't mean (and in this case definitely doesn't mean) that one party the MOE could push them above their actual score, whilst other parties are pushed below.
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