By Jefferson Dufflecoat

The campaigns are nearly over, the manifestos are being released and around Australia the last undecided voters are making up their minds on who to vote for as they go to the polls tomorrow. But who will win. What will change? Will we see a shock to the system or will it be the same old, same old. Let's go through the House seats one final time and lay down some thoughts.

Cowper

The Nationals candidate has treated his campaign with utter disdain. The CLP have run a decent campaign, but against a popular member like Mikiboss, "Decent" isn't going to cut it. Mikiboss's own campaign has been rather subdued as he spent a lot of time working on the SDP manifesto in between the few appearances he made. But nothing here has changed my mind from when candidates were first announced. It was SDP and is likely to remain SDP

Jefferson's final call: SDP RETAIN

Moncrief

I honestly thought on Wednesday night Riley might be in a bit of trouble here as the Green Left Party's fivekoalas came out strong from gate with some strong campaign appearances and speeches attacked the Nationals deputy. But in the past couple of days that attack seems to have tapered off, the CLP are still trying and putting up a fine alternative but I still don't see Riley being in any danger. If he does drop to 47% on the first preferences he IS vulnerable. But that's a mighty big if.

Jefferson's Final Call: NAT GAIN (From Liberal)

Pearce

There's nothing to be said here that hasn't already been said. As I said on Tuesday, it's likely NGSpy's seat for as long as he wants it.

Jefferson's Final Call: SDP RETAIN

Sydney

Dyljam has had a very strong campaign and the endorsement of the former MP Explosivo should be enough to get him over the line. This always was a longshot for the Nationals and the amount of time and effort they've given to the seat only tells you just where they think their chances are.

Jefferson's Final Call: SDP GAIN (From Independent)

Hotham

The Nationals have put a lot of funds into getting sitting MP Mad_Bear_O_Melbourne at, Victoria has seemingly been chosen as the Nats front line as leader Griffo held an appearance there (Even if he did still think he was in Tasmania). Mrcri has had a decent campaign but decent isn't going to get them the seat. But they had done enough to acheive their goal of getting MBOM out. Especially as their preferences will definitely help the Democrats GHagrid in his quest to regain the seat. MBOM is probably going to have to poll at least 47% in First Preferences to make it and with the popularity of Hagrid and the Nationals painting a target on his back. I don't know if that's possible.

Jefferson's Final Call: AUSTRALIAN DEMOCRATS GAIN (From Independent/GLP)

Robertson

This has become on of the more interesting seats of the election with nearly every candidate have very strong campaigns.

Let's start with who's out here. Umatbru, although entertaining and good for a laugh, isn't going to win this one, despite every internet s**tposter hoping otherwise. I also can't see the Green Left picking this one up, No fault of Elleeit, just others have had strong campaigns in my eyes.

Which leaves the Democrats, the Nationals and the CLP. The National candidate 12MaxWild probably needs to run first on first preferences to be safe. Which is possible, but it's anyone's guess as to whether they will, especially with Nationals HQ attention elsewhere

The CLP's UncookedMeatloaf has had a solid, if unspectacular campaign. and the Democrat's SurfingNooty has been around and also has previous experience. Any of the three could win. But I think the CLP may have just done enough to get over the line with the GLP and Democrat preferences.

Jefferson's Final Call: CLP GAIN (From Democrats)

Denison

For all the work the Nationals have done, their leader has had a horrific campaign, forgetting where he was when he made an appearance in Victoria, focusing more on the National picture than his own seat and gaining controversy by actively preference farming in Nicholls.

He'll still win his seat, mind you, but National Party donors can't have been impressed with his showing this time around.

Jefferson's Final Call: NATIONALS GAIN (From Liberals)

LIngiari

The CLP have as predicted come hard for the Liberal's incumbent ThanksHeadMod during this campaign, it would do well to remember that this is one of the most marginal seats in Australia, ThanksHeadMod fell over the line in the by-election and faces a tough challenge here.

Ultimately though, to win. The CLP have to finish the first preference vote on 47% or higher as they will get no help from the Nationals, and I just can't see that happening. It will go to preferences but the Liberals fall over the line again.

Jefferson's Final Call: LIBERAL RETAIN

Mayo

Full credit to Kisakuwu, the Nationals candidate has put up a fight and forced the CLP's cool_santa to defend his seat rather than being out helping the other CLP candidates during this campaign.

It won't win him the seat, but it might help the Nationals in other seats, so in that regard he's done his job admirably.

Jefferson's Final Call: CLP RETAIN

Capricornia

This has been touted as the seat that could decide the election and it has played out like that, a lot of heavy hits landed, a lot of high quality campaigning, a lot of resources poured into this seat from all parties.

Ultimately though. I see this seat flipping. ARichTeaBiscuit has done everything they can to hold onto the seat, but it won't be enough. RMSteve will take this one for the Nationals and if the speculation is right, it could be the decisive one.

Jefferson's Final Call: NATIONALS GAIN (From SDP)

Brisbane

The Democrats have fought bravely and a few key endorsements will garner them some late votes. But ultimately that won't matter. This is back to being a Liberal Fortress with "Porridge" taking his former seat back.

Jefferson's Final Call: LIBERAL RETAIN

Cunningham

I'm a little surprised as to how weak the Liberal campaign has been here. stranger has been out but it's almost like he's been invisible and it may put the seat in jeopardy.

The SDP have thrown a lot at this seat. Rohanite has had a solid campaign and has tried to land where he can. Ultimately though it might just not be enough. I still think stranger falls over the line, but this is a seat that shouldn't have been this close.

Jefferson's Final Call: LIBERAL RETAIN

Melbourne

A seat that was marked as one to watch this campaign has lived up to the billing, both the Nationals and the GLP have fought hard to garner the votes in this one and have gone back and forth landing blows.

Ultimately again though for the Nationals it's about first preferences. They need at least 47% and I don't see them getting it. Which means the Democrats will be the kingmakers, which means this is a GLP victory.

Jefferson's Final Call: GLP GAIN (From SDP)

Canberra

I still don't understand why this wasn't more hotly contested. I doubt I ever will. In any case nothing really needs to be said here. This was over the moment the candidates were announced.

Jefferson's Final Call: AUSTRALIAN DEMOCRATS RETAIN

Nicholls

And so we come to the clusterfu*k. We finally saw the reason behind the record number of independents coming out to take this election on, a preference farming scandal for the Nationals, that brings them into the game, but will it be enough to push them into the top 2? I don't think so. If they had had a stronger candidate who had actually put forth a half decent campaign maybe, but that hasn't happened.

So ultimately the election will be decided as it was always likely to be decided, a straight shootout between the incumbent UnknownTrainor and the former member showstealer1829. Both have absolutely pulled every card out of their bag to try and take the seat. The leader of the GLP even going so far to come out and make an appearance for the incumbent.

This seat will be decided by the preferences of the Nationals and their farm. The way I read it is this, UnknownTrainor probably holds a narrow lead on first preferences, But it will be who comes second who will probably seize the day. If the Nats get into second. showstealer's preferences will push UnknownTrainor over the line. But if the Nats fall short, it's likely the "Panda" is back in Parliament.

So who wins? Your guess is as good as mine, but if you put a gun to my head...

Jefferson's Final Call: GLP GAIN (From SDP

Which leaves the numbers in the House like this

SDP: 3

LIB: 3

NAT: 3

CLP: 2

AD: 2

GLP: 2

Meaning the Bloc is likely to once again be in government but as for the PM? That's anyone's guess. Time will tell as the count is revealed tomorrow.